Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
