Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
